上月底失控墜入地球的美國「高層大氣研究衛星」（UARS）引起一場虛驚，現在又有德國「侖琴衛星」（ROSAT）將於本月廿一日到廿五日之間，在失控狀態中重返大氣層，最有可能是廿二或廿三日墜落，但確切的時間和落點目前仍無法判定。
總重二．四公噸的侖琴是Ｘ射線太空觀測衛星，預料會在重返地球大氣層時解體，約一．七公噸的殘骸可能通過高熱的考驗墜落地表，包括近卅個耐高熱的觀測鏡片和陶瓷組件。
德國太空總署指出，侖琴衛星殘骸造成傷害的機率大約是二千分之一，略高於UARS的三千二百分之一，但地球人口約七十億，所以任何人「中獎」的機率為十四兆分之一。UARS在九月廿四日墜入南太平洋杳無人跡的海域。
侖琴衛星的軌道從北緯五十三度延伸到南緯五十三度，這意味殘骸可能墜落在加拿大到南美洲之間的任何地點，確切時間和落點大約要到殘骸衝擊地表前兩小時才能判定。
點擊圖片可即時看到 ROSAT 衛星目前預測軌道位置。
點擊圖片可即時看到 ROSAT 衛星目前預測軌道位置。
German scientists say 3-tonne satellite will fall to Earth 'from Friday this week'
- Fragments 'could hit in 50-mile-wide track' along path
- Could hit anywhere from 53 degrees north and 53 south - including U.S. and UK
- 1 in 2000 chance it will hit someone
- Satellite will hit between October 21st and 24th
From Friday this week a three-tonne satellite is set to fall to Earth, the German Aerospace Agency DLR warned today.
The ROSAT satellite will re-enter between October 21st and 24th, scientists predict, and could strike anywhere on Earth between 53 degrees north and 53 degrees south - an area stretching from as far north as the UK to as far south as the Falkland Islands.
The agency calculates that there is a 1 in 2000 chance it will hit someone.
Fragments - including pieces of a heat-resistant mirror weighing 880lb - could hit anywhere within an 50 mile-wide path along the satellite's track.
Click image or URL to see ROSAT current predictions - position :
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| Google Sat Track (GST) |
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| Where is ROSAT right now? |
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| Visual SAT-Flare Tracker Online |
